This week Morgan Henley, IYNF volunteer, brings you a breakdown of the current situation in Ukraine, expressing IYNF solidarity with the protesters in Kiev and elsewhere in the country.

Not to trivialize a serious situation that will affect the future of millions and millions of people, I will attempt to breakdown the situation of Ukraine and the Association Agreement in terms that everyone can understand. So even if you don’t have a degree in Eastern European geopolitics, you can get a better understanding of why Ukraine seems to be the country in the spotlight the past couple of weeks.

It’s hard to look at what is going in the Ukraine today and NOT make comparisons as if it was like a big love triangle, with Ukraine being torn between two suitors, the EU and Russia. While this love saga is far from anything new, to look at the current situation, we can begin around a month ago.

Ukraine is trying to maintain an “open relationship,” with both of her suitors, the EU and Russia, yet time is ticking away as the EU expects the Ukraine to sign an Association Agreement along with Georgia and Moldova, linking it closer to Brussels. The truth finally comes out when the Ukrainian government walks away from the negotiations days before the agreement.

The Association Agreement, while it wasn’t exactly a marriage contract (no promise of future EU member status- unlike similar agreements they have with Balkan states), it did contain one thing which is a pretty big deal- opening up trade for Ukrainian business inside the EU. And since the EU makes up ⅕ of the world economy, with 500 million consumers and a GDP of 12.9 trillion Euros, that’s a pretty big deal. Yes, a trillion. It looks like this: 12,900,000,000,000.

So there’s got to be a catch, right? Well, yeah, depending on how you look at it. Ukraine would’ve needed to adopt 350 new EU laws. These laws included some environmental protections, road safety, but mostly they focused on making Ukrainian economics legally more like the European. Also, making these changes and integrating themselves into the EU market would have needed some pretty big investments from the Ukraine upfront, which is the main reason the Ukrainian government cites for not integrating. Many regard this is a cheap excuse, as it is pretty clear that the payoffs in the long run would’ve been huge.

Before the big date in Vilnius that the Ukraine eventually snubbed, the EU had hoped Ukraine would approve a few provisions that would make this agreement possible. One of these included the release of former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoskenko from jail and let her move to Germany, in which Kiev replied with a big, “No way.”

Ok, back to the romance. So why is Ukraine hesitant to make the next “big step” with the EU? Well, the thing is, Kiev is far from over with it’s ex, Russia. While Russia and Ukraine have certainly had their rough times, like most exs, they’re too interconnected to a breakup clean and easy.

It’s probably happened to you, that you’ve had a friend that started seeing an ex that everyone knew was completely wrong for them. Whether it be because this ex was too complicated, had betrayed them before, or was keeping your friend from doing bigger and better things in life, you knew that this was a relationship that was going nowhere good. And just like in this situation, there are lots of people who do not like the idea of Ukraine cosying back up to Russia. Those “lots of people,” would be millions of pro European Ukrainians (opinion polls show it to be around 45%), hundred thousands of which have been protesting in Kiev, calling on the quick resignation of the government

And not to let Ukraine steal all of the attention of the media about the Vilnius meeting, another pretty important event that went down was that Georgia and Moldova actually DID sign their own versions of the Association Agreement. This is pretty significant news, as now Georgia and Moldova are that much closer to the EU and that much farther from Russia. Georgia and Moldova will now be a part of the “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area” (DCFTA). This means the trade barrier free EU and all those trillions of euros we mentioned before are now open for Georgia and Moldova. Like a proud parent, the EU was quick to cheer on Georgia and Moldova for their decisions and let them know how proud they were. Now we can wait to see what drama will unfold as it will take one year for their agreement to ratify. This will give us plenty of time to see if their old friend Russia will retaliate and if the EU’s warm welcome today will include protection against any Russian backlashes later.. These massive protests also show that this return to flirting with Russia is not going to be an easy move. The popular dissent is so large, that any further integration efforts towards Russia and away from Europe are going to be difficult and will very likely cause trouble for the politicians who try to implement them.

This is a love story and drama that has only just begun, and the greater ramifications of the Ukraine, Russia, the EU, or the rest of the post Soviet space is yet to be seen- so stay tuned.

References:

Photograph 1: Onnik Krikorian Photography

Photographs 2 and 3: Nessa Gnatoush.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/11/hopeful-georgia-takes-baby-steps-towards-eu-20131129161746617869.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/12/meet-the-brains-behind-ukraines-massive-protests/281978/

http://www.rferl.org/content/feature/25184812.html